1) Jamaal Charles, K.C. - RB - Not much is really known about Charles, but of the little information we have on him; he's a fairly intriguing prospect. He averaged 20 receiving yards per game as a backup running back. Furthermore, in that reserve role, he showed signs of turning what little carries and receptions he had into substantial gains. Charles has totaled 37 carries and receptions in five games this season; of those play attempts he has compiled Longs of: 26 yds, 24 yds, 20 yds, 17 yds, 15 yds, and 10 yds. So, what's this all mean? It's quite simple actually, Jamaal Charles' numbers thus far suggest that he'll get a first down or more almost one out of every four play attempts. Still not convinced? Well, I could've told you this earlier, but I figure I'll drop it now. He averages a whopping 5 yards per carry. There's no question about, Jamaal Charles is an absolute must-start this week with the absence of Larry Johnson. As an added bonus, if he can manage a solid game against Jacksonville in Week 9 (which happens to allow 375.3 total ypg), he could potentially lock up the starting job in Kansas City until season's end.
2) Sam Aiken, NE - WR - With Joey Galloway no longer with the team and Julian Edelman sidelined with a broken arm, you can expect Aiken to perform in a similar fashion as the Colts' replacement receivers. The 7-year vet is averaging 17.4 receiving yards per game off 7 receptions this season and has shown the ability to go deep; catching a 54-yarder in Week 7 for a score.
3) Ryan Moats, HOU - RB - Ryan Moats is officially the starting running back for the Houston Texans; however, Steve Slaton will give him a run for his money to regain what is rightfully his. While this is great news for Moats owners, don't get too excited as there's good reason Ryan Moats has been a career backup. Slaton may turn the ball over more than you can imagine; however, he's had some very big games, statistically speaking, this season. Both backs will share carries, but look for Moats to make the most out of this opportunity. We expect him to hover around the double-digit fantasy point mark this week, especially in the Texans' explosive offense, which could now rely more heavily on the run with the absence of Owen Daniels.
4) Fred Davis, WAS - TE - Yes, Davis has made the cut again a second consecutive week in our rankings. And that's because we're very high on him. Washington loves to throw the ball to its tight ends and with Chris Cooley out with a broken ankle, Fred Davis takes over as the team's starter. Granted he's only had one good week (8 receptions, 78 yards, and a touchdown in Week 7 against Philadelphia), he has great hands and the Skins are sure to utilize him quite a bit. We expect him to play a big role against the Falcons this week, who are now the 26th ranked yd-allowing pass defense.
5) Kevin Walter, HOU - WR - Owens Daniels is down. We repeat, Owens Daniels is down. Kevin Walter has been quiet ever since Week 3. We repeat, ever since Week 3. Andre Johnson is still dinged up and the Colts secondary is missing two key starters. We're not going to repeat that, you get the point. Put this all together and you no longer have the same Kevin Walter you've seen in the past five weeks. Rather you have a renewed wide receiver who's going to have to step it up for the Houston Texans in the coming weeks if they want to reach the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. Welcome back, Kevin "Big Play" Walter.
6) Pierre Garcon/Austin Collie, IND - WR - With defensive backs Marlin Jackson and Bob Sanders both out for the season, the Colts secondary is likely to give up a lot more big plays, which could translate into less time on the field for the entire defensive unit. In turn, this will once again put Peyton Manning on the spot to keep the team alive in offensive shootouts. Anthony Gonzalez has opted for surgery on his right knee and his status for the remainder of the season is doubtful, which gives Manning no choice but to throw to Garcon and Collie all season long. Collie has consistently been productive in the past weeks, so look for Garcon to maybe step it up. Nonetheless, both are stellar fantasy plays.
7) Laurence Maroney, NE - WR - Miami is a top tier run defense (6th - 92.4 ypg allowed) and a substantially worse pass defense (21st - 251.7 ypg allowed), so right away we can assume the Patriots will pass on a good portion of their total plays. In addition, Maroney has never carried the ball more than 16 times in a game this season. He could hit double-digit fantasy points this week, but the probability for him to reach this mark is much lower than for him to score below it.
8) Alex Smith, S.F. - QB - He's playing the Titans, who are ranked dead last in pass defense, which should be great news. However, the Titans were able to keep the Jacksonville Jaguars in check last week, holding David Garrard to a meager 139 passing yards with no touchdowns and two picks. Not to discredit his decent Week 8 performance against the Colts, Week 9 will really be a test for Smith, proving how well he handles the seemingly easy weeks.
9) Steve Breaston, ARI - WR - Breaston is hit or miss this week, but more towards a hit rather than the latter. Anquan Boldin's ankle injury is still lingering, so that's good news if Breaston is still available in your league. However, the Cards face a tough Bears secondary this week, meaning that even if Breaston gets more opportunity, his fantasy production could still be fairly limited. Although we recommend using him as a No. 3 fantasy WR in Week 9, he could be a better play in the weeks following.
10) Chad Henne, MIA - QB - If the Patriots are expecting a Wildcat-based offensive attack all game long, it would only be logical for the Dolphins to do the opposite. What better way to confuse Bill Belichick? Of course, being the mad genius that he is, he's already been prepping for this aspect of the Phins offense all week long, but if he chooses to put more players in the box to stop the run, Henne could have a few big plays. However, don't expect too much from the Dolphins passing game. After all, the team's strength does lie in its ground game. Henne should only be used under the necessity to fill in for a starting quarterback.
Saturday, November 7, 2009
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